Corona times -2020. ....29. Soon India will be No. 1...... Looking ahead!


Should population be our biggest concern? It appears so. 

A Population Control Bill 2019 was introduced  in Rajya Sabha in by Rakesh Sinha in July 2019.
On 7 February 2020, the Constitution (Amendment) Bill,  2020 was introduced in the Rajya Sabha by Anil Desaiadvocating measures to contain population growth. 

India was the first country to have family planning in the year 1951 as a  national policy.  A lot is  on paper, but  evidently the implementation is poor! 

There are worries that all this will be derailed. It is feared that Covid -19 will be the reason.
There are also many undercurrents which may come in the way of it being implemented seriously.
Vested interests of many hues with their own agenda. Vote bank politics? Cheap Labour?
Religion and caste priorities? Even a belief that 'God who created us will take care!'

I quote from my earlier blog.  "The family planning program is essential despite its faults, which are: bypassing of the natural community; and excessive medicalization and linkage with the health delivery system.”

“In India there is an increasing realization that the achievements of the rural development and family planning programs are marginal relative to the amount of resources committed to them. This is because of the bureaucratic, from-the-top-down bias in which the physical community is neglected." (Wonder how this will change!)

I have tried to look at the two most populous countries in the world and the forecast about their population. The real numbers in the charts  show India's population in 1955 was 409,880,595 and in 2020 it is 1,380,004,385  
China's Population in 1955 was 612,241,554 and in 2020 it is 1,439,323,776. While China is still the most populous country   India is catching up. A difference of  202 million between the two has now dropped to about 59 million in 65 years.

The forecast for the future to me is ominous. It may not necessarily be so to my countrymen! These charts show that  by 2030 India will overtake China! 

On the other hand China's  population which was  200+ million more than India will become lower
 by 210 million in  the next twenty years.

Huge numbers. Cannot imagine how these 250 million young people expected to populate our country will fare. Will they be absorbed usefully in their own places or will they become urban dwellers or  become part of the unorganised migrant workers? 

Indians will be sorely tested and our caliber as people and the ability of our leaders to find equitable solutions will define us. While in the past 65 years we have coped a tripling of our population, a further addition of so many youngsters will be a real challenge.



Comments

Chandramouli said…
Any couples who stopped with ONE child over the last 60 years AND
that CHILD had only ONE child( China imposed this ruthlessly over 40 years)
can limit its population.
Just think about it if this simple math applies to your, my, narasimha’s parents
( 3+6+5); and to me, you & N( 1+2+2). AND our three progeny.

On top of that mortality rates have gone up from 50+ in 1950 to 70+ in 2020,
epidemics( cholera, typhoid, small pox etc) controlled and in general public health
in most urban clusters manageable. We still have 1 doctor for 10000 people, and
one decent hospital for 100,000 people. And abortions are legal.
Tamilnadu & Kerala and Maharashtra have excellent results in pop control,and
5/6 other States are getting there. UP, Bihar,West Bengal,Orissa, MP etc or not
even trying !

N. L. Sriram said…
https://www.workingdaughter.com/book-review-mortal-must-read-caregivers/

And he writes, “Your chances of avoiding the nursing home are directly related to the number of children you have, and according to what little research has been done, having at least one daughter seems to be crucial to the amount of help you will receive.”

Shobana Velamoor said…
Interesting facts Nidhi. Always so impressed by your blogs, the variety of subjects they deal with and when relevant how much research goes into it.
Priya Ramaswami said…
A serious issue. And one we live with.

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