'Demographic dividend'! How old is this concept? It seems I am paranoid about this !

 'Demographic Dividend' is uttered whenever I express worries about the population growth or explosion. It is said in a manner reminiscent of a guru invoking the word 'Karma' to end all arguments.  Obviously DD is coined by an economist..

Curious, I checked and chanced upon a few graphs courtesy UN. 

The 1950 graph reflects the situation close to the beginning of India's independence.

Our leaders would have just managed to settle in the bungalows vacated by the British. It is also the time the refugees who fled Pakistan found refuge in 'camps'. A few, who could afford, did move into their own homes or rented them.  Pavement dwellers were also visible. No idea whether they were refugees or just the migrants from the villages! 

The shape of the pyramid in the graph is typical of the times. We Indians, especially the poor, had more children. Even though the poor had not heard of DD, they instinctively knew that the family needed more working hands for their survival. Their employers also encouraged them to have more children, an abundant source of cheap labour. The young migrated into the towns and cities to seek work. They had no option as there were too many of them for a village to support, especially during the times of drought. 

In fact, it was an answer to the prayers of middle class urban women, mostly child bearers and cooks who needed help very badly. The arrival of village women along with the men was a godsend to them.

The women worked as maid servants  in the urban homes, while their men found work as coolies! It is to their credit the men learnt skills and gradually did better for themselves. 

Living in Pune from 1964 to 1987, I saw many villagers pouring into the city, especially during times of drought. They occupied open spaces along the river, even up the pretty Parvati hills. I guess the government had no choice but to let them build these slums. None went back, they coped and survived.

Clearly these villagers, husband and wife, working in the unorganized sector, was a Demographic (Multiple?) Dividend for the politicians. They were a cheap labor, vote bank and also useful in many other ways.

Coming to the charts below, the 1985  chart is similar to 1950 graph and the 2010 graph looks reassuring as the base of the pyramid is smaller. However in absolute terms India has added, in the period of about 25 years, a phenomenal 858 millions of us.  (While I was out of the country! Not that I could do anything!

It is forecast the population of India will peak in 2055 to about 1649 million and will start going down. Let's hope the DD lovers will  not panic and come out again encouraging population growth! 

The good news for them is that in the next 33 years another 415 million of us will be available to perpetuate the DD benefits and the lucky ones will continue to enjoy. 

Going back in time, even true now, the ultimate measure of success in India is "Kaige ondu aalu, kalige ondu aalu". Which means " One servant for the hand, another servant for the leg". Perhaps it needs to be explained; cooks in the kitchen, maids to clean the house, maid to wash and iron the clothes. Add to that, an ayah to take care of each offspring individually. Drivers and Gardeners. Just let your imagination add as you wish. I used to hear about a scion of a wealthy family who would return from a game of tennis and flop on the sofa, a servant would kneel down and take his shoes off!

Will it ever change??

 

My earlier blogs:

https://nidhibengaluru.blogspot.com/2010/06/i-am-talking-about-our-population.ht

To be honest it is not just the politicians, who are the least admired as a group, there are many more who harbour similar thoughts!

Then today I saw this article: Well worth reading. While I share his concerns, will we ever get down to it and do what is necessary? I am not so sure!

Demographic time-out by R Jagannathan Thursday, June 3, 2010 2:00 IST

The demographic dividend that India is currently reaping is so much a part of accepted wisdom that we are in danger of becoming complacent about it. Loosely speaking, a country derives a demographic advantage when its working age population is rising, leading to growing demand, rising private consumption, booming government revenues....

......But there’s a big if to all this. The power of demography has to be harnessed through the right social and economic policies. There are five things we have to fix quickly: education, labour markets, economic policy, governance and corruption. If we don’t, the demographic advantage will turn out to be a curse. Just as there is nothing more useful than having a youthful labour force, there is nothing worse than having a disengaged and angry population that does not find meaningful jobs........

Read the full article.

https://nidhibengaluru.blogspot.com/2010/06/more-on-population.html

Quote from the above blog: I guess he wanted me to feel a little better! The article, excerpts from a book, says that the population growth is indeed on a downward trend and the world population would level around 9 Billion by the middle of this century. It has elicited a number of comments which shows that people do take population growth issues seriously. Opposite views about how, in some sections of India and other developing countries and of religions opposed to birth control, women would not be permitted to choose this option of having fewer children reduced my euphoria!

https://nidhibengaluru.blogspot.com/2010/06/mouli-reacts-to-my-concerns-about.html

Unlike our days of school (in suburban city environment) when we were basically left-on-our own, there are five asuraas (Devils) who will never let any good happen or last longer than they wish ! The Neta, the Baabu, the Laala, the Jhola and the Daada. (The leader-politician, the bureaucrat, the business man, the journalist-intellectual and the godfather!)