Corona times 2020-14. As we wait with trepiditon for all this to end!
This time around, post lock down 2.0, would be like getting out of jail on parole with conditions attached!
Unable to keep up with events moving rapidly my thoughts go back in time. About ten years old, I had heard an apocryphal story about a mother who was crossing a river with her child. She lifted her child above her head to protect her baby when the river level began to rise. When it rose right upto to her nose, she instinctivly put her child under her feet and stood high, trying to save herself. This story shook me up and has remained! Clearly our instinct for self-preservation is very strong. The prevelant high melodrama surrounding the disease should worry us about the future. It is natural to try and protect oneself and ones' family,
I saw a video where police were scaring youngsters who were out on the road by putting them in an ambulance with a fake corona patient! Overdoing it in my opinion. With this kind of fear it is possible that when factories open after the lock down, a worker may refuse to work along with someone who coughs. Passengers may pull-the-chain to stop a train when someone sneezes. We have already heard about neighbors wanting the family with +ve cases to leave the neighborhood. Wild as it seems, it may get even worse. Not that the whole country will go berserk. We do hear of communities getting together and helping each other. But we all need to learn to take things camly and not let fear of covid 19 take charge of our lives. I daresay as we get more experience in living and coping with Covid 19, we need make rules which are more practical.
I quote from an interview, a very blunt and scientific opinion. (full interview in the end). Srike a balance between saving lives and making a livelihood.
Q-Then what should be solution to increase Herd immunity without increasing mortality? *A- a)Allow younger people to move around freely (but not gathering more than 5 people)
{This is a loaded advice, it is like conscripting soldiers during war time. It is based on the assumption that the probabilty of them getting seriously sick and die is low.}
b) Isolate people with Co morbid conditions, old age people (even at home ask young to be separated from old).
{ Isolate Co morbid people yes, but lock them down only for medical reasons.
Encourage their will-to -live! About old age people, I have said enough in my blog earlier. Please give them space! They are sure to maintain social distance. Most of them would be unsocial anyway!)
Going back, around the sametime, post world war II, it was rationing time. The quality of rice given by the nearby ration shop was horrible and mixed with stone pieces specially made to look like rice. My mother would grumble. But my father was adamant and would not buy rice from the black market.
Slowly things improved, but these memories linger. I never understood how our own people could cheat. It was the new independent India. Sadly we didn't know how to stop these crooked people.
Can we say that our business community is more ethical now and these things do not happen?
We are assured that there is enough food and vegetables and such. However, an internet based store I have used for more than two years, has become elusive. Each day their app tells me that a slot is available. After making my list, when I try to check out, the screen declares 'no slots avialable'! Why not just an yes or no? I suspect they are optimising the system to their advantage, clever, but unethical! Obviosly, I haven't ordered the products which suits them. Or is it just my luck?
Forunately there is an outlet within the society.
Most talked about subjects are our migrant workers, still to be flattened Covid 19 curve and the most worrying 'the way ahead'. Most imporantly, how and when will our flattened or driven down economy recover?
Questions galore from all over. Is the centre doing enough? Are the states better off by doing their own thing and the centre just send money to foot the bill? And where is the money?? Opposition leaders seem to be having a great time, offering advice, criticising the government at every given oppotunity. I guess it keeps the government on its toes!
When the PM announced the midnight lock down, I cringed a bit, as I don't enjoy surprises. Later I felt dumb as I had failed to anticipate that hordes of migrant workers might try to walk miles to get to their home state. If I had an inkling I would have tried to contact the PM to express my views.
Wonder if others who saw the possibility tried to call PM or waited for it all to happen? I don't know!
It is the floating population, workers in the construction business and the hotel industry who are the worst hit. We hear they were kicked out from their homes, left in the lurch by their contractors and are straving without food. It was tougher for those who deiced to walk. A few died in accidents.
While we hear that they are being taken care of, it is surprising there are so many nomadic migratory workers in a country which has been independent for so long! Is it all about cheap labor across the country? Imbalance in different states, rampant freebies? Or is it we are a callous set of people?
Will there be another serious problem? I have not heard much about the daily help or maids who are attached to many households. Will they get their jobs back? I believe many employers are paying them even if they are not able to come to work. But there is a possibilty that some of them may not be called back to work for various reasons.
As we keep worrying and hoping, the future depends on our new Gods, the diviners who use graphs and mathematical models.
According to them at the moment the Indian numbers are small compared to USA and Europe. Frankly it is confusing for a layman to draw lessons from these changing graphs. It is only experts who can intrepret and guide the decision makers.
I heard that private hospitals who have reserved beds for Covid 19 are empty. Whereas the hospitals which are specific to the Covid cases are overworked and many care givers are themselves getting sick. While I can access graphs on the cases, I do not know where to find data on hospitals and their preparedness.
s
Read on for one of the most concise, blunt interviews I have come across.
Unable to keep up with events moving rapidly my thoughts go back in time. About ten years old, I had heard an apocryphal story about a mother who was crossing a river with her child. She lifted her child above her head to protect her baby when the river level began to rise. When it rose right upto to her nose, she instinctivly put her child under her feet and stood high, trying to save herself. This story shook me up and has remained! Clearly our instinct for self-preservation is very strong. The prevelant high melodrama surrounding the disease should worry us about the future. It is natural to try and protect oneself and ones' family,
I saw a video where police were scaring youngsters who were out on the road by putting them in an ambulance with a fake corona patient! Overdoing it in my opinion. With this kind of fear it is possible that when factories open after the lock down, a worker may refuse to work along with someone who coughs. Passengers may pull-the-chain to stop a train when someone sneezes. We have already heard about neighbors wanting the family with +ve cases to leave the neighborhood. Wild as it seems, it may get even worse. Not that the whole country will go berserk. We do hear of communities getting together and helping each other. But we all need to learn to take things camly and not let fear of covid 19 take charge of our lives. I daresay as we get more experience in living and coping with Covid 19, we need make rules which are more practical.
I quote from an interview, a very blunt and scientific opinion. (full interview in the end). Srike a balance between saving lives and making a livelihood.
Q-Then what should be solution to increase Herd immunity without increasing mortality? *A- a)Allow younger people to move around freely (but not gathering more than 5 people)
{This is a loaded advice, it is like conscripting soldiers during war time. It is based on the assumption that the probabilty of them getting seriously sick and die is low.}
b) Isolate people with Co morbid conditions, old age people (even at home ask young to be separated from old).
{ Isolate Co morbid people yes, but lock them down only for medical reasons.
Encourage their will-to -live! About old age people, I have said enough in my blog earlier. Please give them space! They are sure to maintain social distance. Most of them would be unsocial anyway!)
Going back, around the sametime, post world war II, it was rationing time. The quality of rice given by the nearby ration shop was horrible and mixed with stone pieces specially made to look like rice. My mother would grumble. But my father was adamant and would not buy rice from the black market.
Slowly things improved, but these memories linger. I never understood how our own people could cheat. It was the new independent India. Sadly we didn't know how to stop these crooked people.
Can we say that our business community is more ethical now and these things do not happen?
We are assured that there is enough food and vegetables and such. However, an internet based store I have used for more than two years, has become elusive. Each day their app tells me that a slot is available. After making my list, when I try to check out, the screen declares 'no slots avialable'! Why not just an yes or no? I suspect they are optimising the system to their advantage, clever, but unethical! Obviosly, I haven't ordered the products which suits them. Or is it just my luck?
Forunately there is an outlet within the society.
Most talked about subjects are our migrant workers, still to be flattened Covid 19 curve and the most worrying 'the way ahead'. Most imporantly, how and when will our flattened or driven down economy recover?
Questions galore from all over. Is the centre doing enough? Are the states better off by doing their own thing and the centre just send money to foot the bill? And where is the money?? Opposition leaders seem to be having a great time, offering advice, criticising the government at every given oppotunity. I guess it keeps the government on its toes!
When the PM announced the midnight lock down, I cringed a bit, as I don't enjoy surprises. Later I felt dumb as I had failed to anticipate that hordes of migrant workers might try to walk miles to get to their home state. If I had an inkling I would have tried to contact the PM to express my views.
Wonder if others who saw the possibility tried to call PM or waited for it all to happen? I don't know!
It is the floating population, workers in the construction business and the hotel industry who are the worst hit. We hear they were kicked out from their homes, left in the lurch by their contractors and are straving without food. It was tougher for those who deiced to walk. A few died in accidents.
While we hear that they are being taken care of, it is surprising there are so many nomadic migratory workers in a country which has been independent for so long! Is it all about cheap labor across the country? Imbalance in different states, rampant freebies? Or is it we are a callous set of people?
Will there be another serious problem? I have not heard much about the daily help or maids who are attached to many households. Will they get their jobs back? I believe many employers are paying them even if they are not able to come to work. But there is a possibilty that some of them may not be called back to work for various reasons.
As we keep worrying and hoping, the future depends on our new Gods, the diviners who use graphs and mathematical models.
According to them at the moment the Indian numbers are small compared to USA and Europe. Frankly it is confusing for a layman to draw lessons from these changing graphs. It is only experts who can intrepret and guide the decision makers.
I heard that private hospitals who have reserved beds for Covid 19 are empty. Whereas the hospitals which are specific to the Covid cases are overworked and many care givers are themselves getting sick. While I can access graphs on the cases, I do not know where to find data on hospitals and their preparedness.
 |
| Cable tv experts say that India's graphs are good. Cases are growing linear. The numbers were low. |
 |
| USA numbers are huge. Both India and USA were low around mid March. There is one study which predicts similar dire results for India. Must be the worst case scenario which should help govt. preparedness. No need to alarm an average citizen. Some reason I do not trust their projections |
 |
| The situation we are hoping for. |
 |
| This Singapore study should be a big reief. |
An interview with *Prof Jacob* *John** ( retired Prof of Virology from CMC ,Vellore.
*1)Q-Will virus disappear after extended lockdown-* A-NO*
*2) Q-When will be virus effect disappear-**A-* When 40-60 % population gets exposure and immunity (Herd immunity)*
*3) Q-What is problem with getting herd immunity*A- We don't Know how many patients will die
*4) What are high risk people for Mortality-*A- a) Those aged more than 60 years b) Those with comorbid conditions Diabetes, hypertension, cardiac problems, renal failurec) Healthcare professionals due to increased viral load
*4) What are high risk people for Mortality-*A- a) Those aged more than 60 years b) Those with comorbid conditions Diabetes, hypertension, cardiac problems, renal failurec) Healthcare professionals due to increased viral load
*5) Q-What is our ultimate aim?*A- a)Decrease number of deaths b) Control the virus transmission till it is no more a Public Health Problem.c) reduce the morbidity and Mortality by early intervention.
*6) Q-Then what should be solution to increase Herd immunity without increasing mortality?*A- a)Allow younger people to move around freely (but not gathering more than 5 people) b) Isolate people with Co morbid conditions, old age people (even at home ask young to be separated from old) c) To decrease viral load in healthcare professionals do not allow more than 8-16 hrs/wk duty of any healthcare professionals actively treating covid +be patient (Remember Spain has 10 % of total deaths are in healthcare professionals) d) Isolate covid +ve symptomatic pt till his two reports are coming negativee) Graded and staggered restart of movements
*7)Q-When to Loosen the lockdown?*A- When our covid hospitals are well prepared, means having enough PPE, ventilators, antiviral and HCQs stock Lockdown will not stop but just slowdown spread...
*8) Q- What is best time for getting herd immunity-*A- NOW, because of increased temperatures the viral transmission seems to be slower in community, which might not be there in rainy or Winter, If it increases in winter, Weather will be against us, (Most of mortality are there in countries with temperatures less than 18 degrees) In my knowledge,Until and unless we get herd immunity (means more than 50 % population gets antibody +ve) this will not stop , Then Our Aim should not be targeting number of patients testing positive but is to decrease number of deaths...
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