Corona Times 2020-15. As we look ahead for the month of may.

Our TV Anchors get excited everyday. It is a roller coaster ride in our war against the corona virus.  One day we feel thrilled as the cases drop and  the next day there is a spike! This must be upsetting to our forecasters. They need to redo their math!
 Imagine how a conductor would feel if the musicians went off key! 

Anyway,  keen to figure things for myself, I  discovered  worldometer. This site gives a lot of information on the various parameters for us to understand the trends better.  It is not uniform all across. Out of the top 7 countries USA is impacted the most. The next 9 countries, including India, are in comparison doing better. Out of the rest of the world, those  from 30K up to 10 K cases are also okay, barring a few. Those below 10k  look safe at the moment. (This is as of 29 April  2020)

 When I look at the graphs below, I wonder whether we need to be so scared

USA is worst hit! Followed by Spain, Italy and France.
 Germay and Iran have lower mortality. And China is almost normal!
  So far India with 32k has been fortunate, it is not even in this graph.


This graph is interesting. USA and EU have almost equal number of cases.  
The way death numbers shot up in USA is shocking.
 It leads at 61k+ while China has stabilised at 4k +.
 Could India imitate China?

This comparison is revealing.
 Europe together as group  has more deaths than USA.
Death per million population could be double on an average.

India at 1% of total cases should feel good. 
But the lack of health care in non-urban areas is our worry.

India's daily cases are going up.  
Yesterday 1738 cases  were added, 2.12 percent of the 81,678 cases.

Yesterday's death numbers was 71 in India, about 1.08 percent of a total 6593.
Both number of cases and death  seem to have stabilized in the world.

There is some concern as the cases have increased for India.
Yesterday cases went up by 1738, which is high. 
Such  numbers were seen in other countries during beginning of March.
 This breathing time has surely given us an opportunity to
 prepare well for the ongoing long war, about 12 to 18  months !




Comments

Unknown said…
Very good analysis! You should be in Delhi o join the advisory board to PM. Jokes apart it is very educative. Keep it up 👍
Unknown said…
Very good analysis! Very educative. Pl leep it up👍

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